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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC/USD Slumps Below $60,000 Support as Bears Overwhelm Bulls

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction – April 10, 2021
BTC/USD made positive moves above the $60,000 overhead resistance as price reached a high of $61,243. Unfortunately, buyers could not sustain the bullish momentum above the overhead resistance. Today, BTC price has fallen below the $60,000 support. A further downward movement of the coin is likely.

Resistance Levels: $58,000, $59,000, $60,000
Support Levels: $40,000, $39,000, $38,000

BTC/USD – Daily Chart

Today, BTC price broke the $60,000 overhead resistance as price reached the high of $61,243. In previous price actions, buyers broke the overhead resistance on two other occasions. On March 14, the bulls broke the psychological price level as price rallied to $61,699 high. On April 2, buyers also made concerted efforts to break the resistance but the market reached a high of $60,190. One common feature in the price action is that buyers failed to sustain the bullish momentum above the overhead resistance. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen to $58,450 low and pulled back. The bottom line is that if the bears break the $58,000 support, the market will further decline to $54,000 low. On the other hand, if the $58,000 supports holds, Bitcoin will resume upside momentum.

HSBC Blacklists Microstrategy’s Stock for Investing In Bitcoin
HSBC is an investment banking giant that has classified MicroStrategy as a “virtual currency product.” HSBC has directed users that already own MicroStrategy stock not to buy additional shares. According to reports, buying MicroStrategy stock is no longer possible for HSBC customers on the bank’s online trading platform — HSBC InvestDirect or HIDC. The message from the banking giant includes the following: “HIDC will not participate in facilitating (buy and/or exchange) products relating to virtual currencies, or products related to or referencing to the performance of the virtual currency.” The reason for the blacklisting is that MicroStrategy is a virtual currency product.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart

Bitcoin has fallen after breaking the overhead resistance. Meanwhile, the upside momentum will resume if the BTC price retraces and finds support above the $58,000 support. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci tool has indicated an upward movement of price. On April 2 uptrend, a retraced candle body tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This retracement gives the impression that BTC price will rise to level 1.618 Fibonacci extension or the high of $66,425.90.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: BTC/USD Slumps Below $60,000 Support as Bears Overwhelm Bulls

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ECB’s Christine Lagarde Discusses Timeline for Digital Euro

European Central Bank’s (ECB) chief Christine Lagarde said that the possibility of a digital Euro, known more technically as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), coming into circulation is growing given the change in digital priorities.

But it could still take the European Union sometime before it decides on moving forward with the idea.

CBDC Roll-out Process Is Complicated

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Lagarde pointed to the intricate processes needed for a decision to be made towards launching a digital Euro. According to her, there is a possibility that a state-backed digital currency could come into existence in the next couple of years once the Governing Council gives the go-ahead.

The ECB would first release an analysis of eight thousand responses it received following its digital Euro consultation exercise. According to the French business guru, these responses would first be communicated to the European Parliament, a key player. Then the ECB’s decision-making Governing Council would decide whether to proceed with the fiat replica experimentation.

The consultation results would determine whether the ECB would commence experimentation on a digital fiat in the next six months or a year.

“It’s a technical endeavor as well as a fundamental change,” Lagarde said. “We need to make sure that we’re not going to break any system, but to enhance the system,” she added.

Lagarde’s enhancement speech echoes the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report, which noted that over 20% of national banks globally actively considered rolling out a state-sanctioned digital currency. The report published in late 2020 recommended that any efforts in this direction should not usurp the fundamental role that fiat plays in the economy. According to the BIS, CBDCs should be integrated into the extant settlement framework.

Four Years At Most

But despite this supposed positive outlook for CBDCs, Lagarde has said it may take up to four years before anything meaningful comes out.

The CBDC race is led by China, which is currently fast-tracking the digital yuan pilot tests to meet up to the Winter Olympics in Beijing. But China is not the only country that has made efforts to revolutionize the way people spend cash. The Bahamas is the first recognized economy using a state-backed digital currency called Sands Dollar, and Lagarde says she is keenly interested in this project.

According to her, any decision on CBDCs would be targeted at providing Europeans with a fairly stable, safe, and secure digital currency, given the immense shift it would bring to the European financial scape.

Lagarde is a well-known critic of Bitcoin being perceived as a medium of exchange.

Noting the potential harm the digital asset may bring to the financial system, Lagarde said the pseudonymous nature of Bitcoin could serve criminal intents like money laundering and terrorist financing.

To many like her, the CBDC is a concept to regain the financial system disruptively usurped by decentralization.

ECB’s Christine Lagarde Discusses Timeline for Digital Euro

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Coinbase Reveals it’s Now Recruiting Skilled Tech Professionals in India, Despite Nation’s Lack of Regulatory Clarity on Cryptos

Digital asset marketplace Coinbase has revealed that it’s planning to hire in India, a country that has been attempting to ban “private” cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, the nation’s authorities recently clarified that they’re not going to shut off crypto activity completely, meaning digital currencies may be used as a form of investment but not an officially approved medium-of-exchange (or legal tender like the Indian Rupee).

The Coinbase team writes in a blog post:

“Following our recent announcement that we are now hiring in Canada, today [March 25, 2021] we’re happy to announce that Coinbase is establishing a business presence in India. By housing some IT services, including engineering, software development and customer support operations in India, we will benefit from its huge pool of world-class engineering talent.” 

Coinbase added that India has a well-known reputation for being a major global hub for engineering and tech innovation. Coinbase also mentioned that they’re looking forward to “finding that world-class talent” to help them create “new ways” for their customers “to interact with the cryptoeconomy.”

Coinbase further noted that they had announced earlier this year that they’re “committed to being a remote-first company, which means that new hires in India, Canada, and elsewhere will have the option to work across various locations in their country of hire.”

Coinbase added:

“We expect to open a physical office, initially in Hyderabad, for Indian employees as COVID-related conditions allow. Along with active hiring in the US, UK, Ireland, Japan, Singapore, Canada and the Philippines, establishing a presence in India is another important step to building more geographic diversity in our remote-first workforce.”

In a separate update from Kayvon Pirestani, Head of APAC Institutional Coverage at Coinbase, the company revealed that one of the latest firms to “diversify” their corporate balance sheets with crypto-assets is Meitu, Inc.

Coinbase confirmed:

“The Hong Kong-listed (1357-HK) consumer tech company, known for its wildly popular selfie and photo community apps used by millions around the globe, recently purchased both Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

The Coinbase team further revealed:

“Coinbase Institutional was selected as the sole partner for both trade execution and custody on both their initial and second allocations, for a combined total of US$90m of BTC and ETH. Meitu was able to utilize our sophisticated algorithmic execution and smart order routing tools, along with the execution planning services of our high-touch agency-only OTC trading desk to execute these transactions across multiple marketplaces with minimal market impact.” 

(Note: for more details on this announcement, check here.)

As covered recently, the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hit Coinbase with a $6.5 million penalty for wash trading.

The penalty arrives just in advance of an anticipated initial public offering for the largest digital asset exchange in the US that should help to define the digital asset sector for the United States.

Wash trading has been an ongoing issue in the crypto exchange industry, most typically in exchanges that operate outside the US.

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Norway Central Bank Chief Calls Bitcoin Unstable and Resource Intensive

Norway’s Central Bank does not seem so keen on cryptocurrencies despite being known as a cashless society. This was deduced from the recent comments made by the Governor of Norges Bank, Oystein Olsen.

Norway’s Problem With Bitcoin

Olsen described Bitcoin as being too resource-intensive, far too costly, and unstable. These features are enough reason not to recommend Bitcoin as an alternative to fiat or a government-backed currency.

“The basic property and task for a central bank and central bank currency is to provide stability in the value of money and the system, and that is not done by Bitcoin,” Olsen told Bloomberg.

The apex bank chief said Bitcoin wouldn’t replace the money currently controlled by central banks. Olsen also doesn’t see cryptos like Bitcoin disrupting the operations of banks.

Although Olsen is not interested in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, he’s not dismissing emerging technologies’ potential monetary applications. According to him, digital currencies are the new wine, and it gets better now that central banks are entering the scene.

The bank supports the cashless idea fully. We can see this in Norway’s mode of operations and payments. The Central Bank’s Deputy Governor, Ida Wolden Bache, revealed that only 4% of all payments are made with physical banknotes and coins.

While Norway’s apex banks won’t budge on crypto, Norwegian firms are embracing Bitcoin. Norwegian multinational Aker ASA launched a crypto-facing business unit, Settee AS, earlier this month.

Settee AS would invest in Bitcoin companies operating and hold its liquid assets in the BTC.

Norway’s CBDC Plans

While Norway welcomes the idea of developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), the country is not one of the first front-runners on the scene. Countries like China and Sweden are taking the lead.

Bache had disclosed in November that the central bank was exploring the need for a CBDC. But, they’re in no hurry to push out a prototype.

“The lack of urgency reflects our view so far that there is no acute need to introduce a CBDC. The introduction of a CBDC could have considerable consequences in a number of areas. Our decision must be well-informed.”

Just like the United States, Norway believes that CBDCs would not replace cash. Bache said that a CBDC would not change the private sector credit intermediation. 

Norway Central Bank Chief Calls Bitcoin Unstable and Resource Intensive

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CipherTrace and Blockchain Industry Insiders Comment on Updated FATF Guidelines on Virtual Assets and VASPs

Blockchain security firm CipherTrace has provided an analysis on the proposed Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidance for digital assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs).

On March 19, 2021, global anti-money laundering watchdog, the FATF, released a public consultation for its latest Draft Guidance on a Risk-Based Approach to Virtual Assets and Virtual Asset Service Providers.

As noted by CipherTrace, some important changes in the draft guidance are as follows:

  • DEXs or decentralized/non-custodial crypto exchanges and crypto-asset escrow services are considered Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs)
  • Stablecoins are virtual asset (VAs) and FATF Standards apply to these financial instruments
  • Only non-fungible tokens or NFTs that are able to potentially carry out money laundering (ML) and terrorism financing (TF) activities may be considered VAs
  • VASPs need to “assess and mitigate” proliferation financing (PF) risks
  • “Best practices” for counterparty VASP due diligence
  • Options for “mitigating peer-to-peer transaction risks”
  • Updated Travel Rule “clarifications and guidance”

As mentioned in CipherTrace’s blog post, FATF has clarified the definitions of Virtual Assets and Virtual Asset Service Providers.

The FATF doesn’t consider central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to be a form of virtual assets. The agency “applies standards similar to any other form of fiat currency issued by a central bank,” CipherTrace noted.

The blockchain firm also mentioned that FATF considers decentralized exchanges, platforms, or apps to be VASPs.

As stated in CipherTrace’s blog post:

“A decentralized or distributed application (DApp), is not a VASP under the FATF standards—the Standards do not apply to underlying software or technology—but entities involved with the DApp such as owners or operators may be VASPs under the FATF definition.”

CipherTrace’s blog post added:

“VA escrow services, including services involving smart contract technology, brokerage services, order-book exchange services, advanced trading services, and custody providers are all VASPs.”

The CipherTrace analysis further noted:

“Some non-fungible tokens (NFTs) that may not initially appear to constitute VAs may in fact be VAs due to secondary markets that enable the transfer or exchange of value or facilitate money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing.”

CipherTrace added that assets “should not be deemed uncovered by the FATF Recommendations because of the format in which they are offered and no asset should be interpreted as falling entirely outside the FATF Standards.”

John Paul Koning, who focuses on monetary economics, financial inclusion, and cryptocurrency, pointed out that if you’re a shareholder of Uniswap (a leading non-custodial Ethereum token or ERC-20 exchange), then you’re likely a VASP.

Koning claims that these developments indicate that decentralized finance or DeFi “might be on the cusp of becoming KYC’ed.”

Brendan Blumer, CEO and Block.one, the company behind the development of EOS, a major blockchain platform for developing DLT-powered applications, has argued:

“DeFi is too often an intentional excuse to violate KYC & AML laws, but this will end abruptly. Compliant programmable finance will radically transform our financial system by displacing inefficient fee-taking middle-men and driving more value back to end-users.”

(Note: you may check out FATF’s complete report here.)

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