Biz Builder Mike

You can't sail Today's boat on Yesterdays wind - Michael Noel

Price analysis 9/25: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, DOT, LINK, BNB, CRO, LTC, BSV

by

According to a study by researchers at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, the number of people who own Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets has surged from about 35 million in 2018 to over 100 million. This is a positive sign because the growth continued even when the crypto markets were not in a secular bull trend. 

The allure of digital currencies is likely to increase further if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves a Bitcoin ETF, but only Commissioner Hester Peirce is supportive of such a move. 

Peirce recently said that the SEC was closely watching recent regulatory changes such as the approval by the Treasury bank regulator which allows banks to hold “stablecoin ‘reserves’ as a service to bank customers.” 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Billionaire and Bitcoin bull Tim Draper believes that crypto adoption will happen because it is “important for the world.” Draper recently provided insight into his holdings, revealing that he also holds several altcoins in his portfolio.

Most top 10 cryptocurrencies have rebounded off their recent lows but does this indicate that the downtrend is over or is the current action just a dead cat bounce? Let’s study the charts to find out.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin turned up from $10,137 on Sep. 23 and broke above the 20-day exponential moving average ($10,705) on Sep. 24. However, the bulls have not been able to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, which shows that the bears have not thrown in the towel yet.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the bears are shorting at the 20-day EMA but they will gain an upper hand only after they sink the price below the uptrend line. 

The flat moving averages and the relative strength index close to the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. If the RSI can rise above the 55–60 resistance zone, the bullish momentum is likely to pick up.

If the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA, they might again face stiff resistance at $11,178 and then at the downtrend line. A breakout of this resistance will signal a possible end to the correction.

This bullish view will be invalidated if the BTC/USD pair turns down from the current levels and plummets below the uptrend line and the $9,835 support.

ETH/USD

Ether (ETH) has rebounded sharply from the critical support at $308.392 and the bulls will now try to push the price above the downtrend line and the overhead resistance at $395. If they succeed, it will suggest that the correction has ended.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bears are unlikely to give up their advantage easily. They will try to stall the relief rally at the downtrend line and the moving averages. If the ETH/USD pair turns down from either resistance, the bears will try to sink the price below $308.392.

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest that the bears still hold a slight advantage, but if the bulls can again buy the next dip to $308.392, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days.

The next trending move is likely to start after the bulls either push the price above $395 or the bears sink the pair below $308.392.

XRP/USD

The bears have frequently used pullbacks to the 20-day EMA to initiate short positions in a downtrend and they are likely to attempt the same in XRP. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA ($0.24), the bears will try to resume the downtrend.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers will succeed in their endeavor if they can sink the price below the Sep. 24 low of $0.219712. If this level cracks, the decline can extend to $0.19.

However, if the bulls can propel the XRP/USD pair above the 20-day EMA, a move to the 50-day simple moving average ($0.26) is likely. A breakout of this resistance may result in a rally to $0.303746.

Traders can keep an eye on the RSI because if it rises above the 50–60 resistance zone then the momentum might change in favor of the bulls.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rebounded off the critical support at $200 on Sep. 23 and the bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($228). 

BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, it will suggest that the selling pressure has reduced. The bulls can then push the price to the 50-day SMA ($259) and above it to $280.

However, the downsloping moving averages and the RSI in negative territory suggests that the bears have the upper hand. This means bears will probably try to short the relief rally to the 20-day EMA.

If the BCH/USD pair turns down from this resistance, the bears will again try to sink the price below $200.

DOT/USD

The failure of the bears to sustain the price below the $4 support attracted buying by bulls on Sep. 24. Traders will now try to push Polkadot (DOT) above the 20-day EMA at $4.67.

DOT/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, the DOT/USD pair can move up to $4.921 and then to $5.5899. A break out of this resistance will signal that the correction might be over.

However, if the price turns down from $5.5899, the pair could remain range-bound for a few days.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to sink the pair below the $4.00–$3.5321 support zone. 

LINK/USD

A strong rebound off a critical support is a positive sign as it shows that the bulls are accumulating aggressively at that level. This was seen in Chainlink (LINK) when it surged from close to the $6.90 support on Sep. 24 and broke above the downtrend line.

LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bears are unlikely to give up their advantage easily and will defend the 20-day EMA ($10.82) aggressively. If the price dips back below the downtrend line, the sellers will make one more attempt to break the $6.90 support and extend the decline to $4.50.

However, if the bulls do not allow the price to dip below the downtrend line and the $8.908 support, it will suggest a possible change in trend. The LINK/USD pair may then rally to $13.28.

Currently, both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a balance between supply and demand. The pair might consolidate for a few days before starting a strong trending move.

BNB/USD

The bears attempted to resume the correction on Sep. 23 but could not break below the Sep. 21 intraday low at $22.10. This shows that the bulls were accumulating Binance Coin (BNB) between $22.10 to $23.

BNB/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

This resulted in a sharp rebound on Sep. 24 that broke above the downtrend line, but the bulls are facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($25.12). If the BNB/USD pair fails to rise above this resistance, the bears will again try to resume the correction.

If the sellers can sink the price below the $22 support during the next decline, the pair can drop to $20 and then to $18. This bearish view will be invalidated if the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA. 

CRO/USD

The bulls purchased the dip to the $0.144743 support on Sep. 24 and will now try to push Crypto.com Coin (CRO) above the downtrend line. If they succeed, it will suggest a likely end to the correction.

CRO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the CRO/USD pair sustains above the downtrend line, the bulls will attempt to resume the uptrend and push the price above the $0.183416–$0.191101 resistance zone.

However, if the pair turns down from the downtrend line, the bears will again try to sink the price below the $0.144743 support. A close (UTC time) below this level will complete a bearish descending triangle pattern. The target objective of this negative setup is $0.10607. 

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.15) and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the bears have a slight advantage.

LTC/USD

The failure of the bears to capitalize on the sharp drop on Sep. 21 and sink the price to $39 shows that the bulls had been buying close to $42 levels. Litecoin (LTC) can now move up to the 20-day EMA ($47.91) where the bulls are likely to encounter stiff resistance. 

LTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that the bears are likely to sell on rallies to the 20-day EMA. 

If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will once again attempt to resume the downtrend and sink the LTC/USD pair to the critical support at $39.

However, if the bulls can arrest the next decline above $42 and then push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will signal a possible change in trend. Above this resistance, the pair can move up to $51.

BSV/USD

Bitcoin SV (BSV) is trading inside the large $146.20–$227 range for many months. A breakdown of this range will be a huge negative as it will show that the indecision among the bulls and the bears has resolved in favor of the bears.

BSV/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, the bulls are attempting to defend the $146.20–$135.00 support zone aggressively. However, buying dries up at higher levels and the bulls have not been able to push the price above the downtrend line.

The failure to rise above the downtrend line will attract selling and the bears will try to sink the BSV/USD pair below the support zone. If they succeed, a new downtrend is likely to begin.

This bearish view will be invalidated if the bulls can push the price above the downtrend line and the $180 resistance. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Price analysis 9/25: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, DOT, LINK, BNB, CRO, LTC, BSV

Source

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce Comes to the Defense of Unikrn and ICO Settlement

by

Earlier today, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a settlement with Unikrn, a digital asset issuer that was deemed to have transgressed securities law in the offering of an unregistered security via an initial coin offering (ICO). Unikrn agreed to pay a $6.1 million penalty while effectively shutting down operations and retiring issued tokens. Unikrn settled without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings.

In the aftermath of the announcement, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, a well-known proponent of Fintech innovation, criticized the SECs decision to pursue such a settlement without any allegations of fraud. Commissioner Peirce pointed to the destruction of the company as the outcome of the settlement, stating:

“… the Commission is effectively forcing the company to cease operations because of an allegedly improper offering of supposed securities.”

While recognizing the transgression, Commissioner Peirce warned the SEC was stifling innovation and accompanying  economic growth with its heavy-handed approach to the emerging area of digital assets.

Commissioner Peirce has proposed a regulatory “safe harbor” for digital assets in a move to allow more clarity in the offering of digital assets.

Commissioner Peirce’s Statement is republished below.

Today’s settlement with Unikrn, Inc., is the latest in a growing line of enforcement actions arising from initial coin offerings.[1] While many SEC enforcement actions in this space include allegations of fraud, Unikrn falls within the narrower category of token issuers charged only with violating Section 5 of the Securities Act.[2] In other words, Unikrn is alleged to have offered and sold its tokens in an unregistered offering and in a manner that did not qualify for an exemption; it is not alleged to have engaged in any fraud in doing so. Registration violations, even standing alone, are serious, and our enforcement actions can serve to deter such violations and protect harmed investors. We should strive to avoid enforcement actions and sanctions, however, that enervate innovation and stifle the economic growth that innovation brings. I believe that this action and its accompanying sanctions will have such consequences.

The settlement requires Unikrn to permanently disable its blockchain-based token, which it had integrated into its product offerings, and pay a penalty of $6.1 million, which represents substantially all of the company’s assets. In other words, the Commission is effectively forcing the company to cease operations because of an allegedly improper offering of supposed securities.[3]

While I do not concur in my colleagues’ opinion that Unikrn’s token offering constituted a securities offering, I recognize that the determination of whether an instrument is offered and sold as a security in the form of an investment contract requires a subjective weighing of the facts and circumstances. Such analysis, idiosyncratic by its very nature, does not produce clear guideposts for entrepreneurs and others to follow. The challenge of discerning a clear legal line is especially difficult with respect to new forms of business and novel technologies. Entrepreneurs may be forced to choose between unpalatable options: expending their limited capital on costly legal consultation and compliance or forgoing their pursuit of innovation due to fear of becoming subject to an enforcement action. A regulatory safe harbor could resolve this unhappy dilemma.

As I proposed earlier this year,[4] a well-designed, narrowly tailored regulatory safe harbor would efficiently and effectively combine the Commission’s interest in protecting investors with developers’ ambition to experiment. Affording a company like Unikrn a three-year regulatory window within which to further develop and refine its platform—while still subjecting it to the antifraud laws—would provide benefits to token purchasers, token issuers, and the Commission.

Imagine if such a regulatory safe harbor had been available to Unikrn. Instead of permanently disabling its tokens as a result of today’s settled enforcement action, Unikrn, in concert with its tokenholders, might be devoting its time and resources to identifying new uses for the token and expanding its user base. Although some may not see the loss of the benefits of innovation as large in this specific instance, posterity will feel the cumulative loss to society of innovation forgone because of such actions. Indeed, we will never know the full magnitude of such losses because some would-be entrepreneurs, having seen one too many Unikrns, may decide it wiser to shelve their most transformative ideas.

By failing to challenge ourselves to experiment with new approaches to regulation, we, and those whose interests we are pledged to serve, risk surrendering the fruits of innovation. I respectfully dissent from the Commission’s actions today relating to Unikrn.

Source