Prediction #1: 2026 Is the Year of Tokenization
In a recent Economist op-ed, BlackRock’s Larry Fink reached through the computer screen and put his arm on the shoulder of every TradFi boomer reading his piece, looked them in the eyes, and said… “We finally discovered why blockchains are useful…. it’s tokenization.”
After the euphoria of the TradFi stablecoin gold rush calms down, the race toward tokenization will begin.
- SEC Chair Paul Atkins said that all U.S. capital markets will have an onchain manifestation in just two years.
- BlackRock already has an incredibly successful tokenized product, and is clearly aiming for more.
The signs are clear – Wall Street is launching full-speed into tokenization, and they’ve been given the regulatory green light to do so.
My Remaining Questions:
- Which asset classes are most likely to be tokenized next?
- Will generalized issuance platforms like Securitize or Superstate capture the bulk of new demand?
- Do large institutions ultimately prefer to issue and manage their own tokens?
- Is there room for startups that specialize in narrower or more exotic asset categories?
Prediction #2: ICOs Return in Full Force
Yield farming, airdrop farming, points programs… These were shitty, convoluted workarounds to carry out a basic capital markets job—putting assets in the hands of the public.
Hundreds of years ago, capital markets learned that direct asset sales to interested investors were the best way to raise capital and get the assets in the hands of aligned investors. Finally, with the departure of Gary Gensler, we have the regulatory tolerance needed for crypto to align with the hundreds of years of wisdom in TradFi.
The promise of ICOs was direct access between the public and startups raising capital. We tested that model in 2017 and learned we weren’t quite ready for it. Both the sale mechanisms and the quality of projects needed to improve. In 2025, we have both of those.
It’s hard to understate the importance of Aztec’s recent public token sale – for two core reasons:
- Aztec did the legal work ahead of time to produce a legal opinion that the $AZTEC token is not a security, and therefore can be sold to both U.S. and unaccredited investors
- They did their token sale fully onchain, without a single intermediary, via the Uniswap CCA
The precedent this sets – for both the legal footing of future tokens and the viability of onchain token sales – is significant. Hopefully, more projects follow Aztec’s lead and use the Uniswap CCA.
My Remaining Questions:
- Which token sale platforms emerge as the default, and what drives their adoption?
- Can the longstanding equity-token misalignment actually be resolved?
- Will meaningful progress be made on regulatory constraints like investor accreditation and securities restrictions?
- Will high-quality teams choose public token sales, or will the model succumb to adverse selection?
Prediction #3: DeFi Mullet Growth Hits Warp Speed
The Coinbase DeFi mullet is growing incredibly fast. The Coinbase front-end has Ethereum, Base, and Solana all as blockchain backends, supplying Coinbase customers with access to DEXs across each of these – and DeFi loans via Morpho. Morpho’s Base TVL alone grew by $2.5B since Coinbase’s integration.
I expect stablecoin neobanks that use Ethereum as their banking layer to continue to grow significantly this year. These will naturally try to evolve into financial super-apps, with the most obvious next step being the integration of DeFi products to expand customer offerings.
Traditional banks spend billions on points, miles, and cash-back programs to buy users, effectively borrowing against future interchange. A stablecoin neobank could use a token to replicate this dynamic with near-zero marginal cost, making customer acquisition costs almost free or even negative as early users become stakeholders who help grow the network. See what Rainbow Wallet is doing with their token to incentivize users and activity on their app – now extend that to a whole category of stablecoin neobanks on Ethereum.
My Remaining Questions:
- How much of this value accrues to incumbents versus opening room for new startups?
- Is the fintech neobank layer the UX bridge crypto has always needed to onboard a broader audience?
- With apps like Aave fully abstracting away the blockchain, are we finally at a point where chain infrastructure no longer meaningfully shows up in the consumer experience?
Prediction #4: Robotics Tokens Reach Price Mania Despite Being Vaporware
While tokenization is the theme of 2026 in crypto, the theme of 2026 in the real world might be robotics. By the end of the year, robots will be walking among us and this will be normal.
Clankers will live!
I think this will create a narrative-driven hype bubble not unlike the AI token mania of November 2024 – Jan 2025. Robotics will be a very investable category, but almost entirely contained to privately owned enterprises or large incumbents like Tesla.
Nonetheless, degens will degen and as robotics becomes increasingly culturally relevant, traders will find low market cap, low liquidity tokens in order to express that trade.
My Remaining Question:
- Will there be a single token of real substance? What’s the Bittensor for Robotics?
Prediction #5: Quantum Attack Fears Ramp Up
Quantum computing is on the horizon. Billions of dollars are being invested into making a full production quantum computer a reality. It’s not a question of if, but when.
There are millions of dormant bitcoins that will be quantum attacked at the first available opportunity from someone with a sufficiently capable quantum computer. That’s a central-bank reserve supply of Bitcoins. Nic Carter thinks this concludes in a quantum race between the U.S. and China to steal the bitcoins before the other.
All of crypto will have to contend with quantum, ahead of the rest of society. But the internet as we know it will also need to be reconstructed as quantum resilient. Shit is going to break. It’s going to be a spectacle.
In a similar way to how Y2K became a societal meme, I expect quantum attacks to do the same. Prepping your company/business/security practices to become quantum-proof is something that all societies will need to engage in. Culturally speaking, this is going to get loud.
To be clear, in 2026, it will still be relatively quiet. It’ll be a niche issue for the hobbyists and enthusiasts who care about the matter. But these conversations will set a course for the point when this will all boil over and sound deafening. If you decide to pay attention in 2026… you’ll simply notice this growing as an issue, as quantum capacity grows and urgency escalates.
My Remaining Questions:
- We still aren’t all that clear on the feasibility of creating a full-production quantum computer on the near-term timelines you see tossed around on Twitter – does that change anytime soon?
- How straightforward will it be for our technological society to adapt to quantum? Maybe everything is a lot less of a ruckus than I’m predicting?